Thursday, January 19, 2012

Election predictions

Obama beat McCain by 7.2% popular vote.,_2008

Popular vote 69,456,897 for Obama, vs 59,934,814 for McCain. Thats a percentage of 52.9% vs 45.7%

If 3.6% of the people that voted for Obama last time, change their vote to the Republican candidate this year, thats a tie in popular vote. I guarantee there is at least that much in swing voters pissed off and voting him out.

That does not account for those that "turned out the vote" that didn't normally vote, but made a point to, because Obama promised the world, was called "The One" by Oprah Winfrey (referring to a question asked in the fictional novel "The Autobiography of Miss Jane Pittman" if different newborn babies were the ones who would save african-americans and bring them equality) promised his FIRST ACT as president would be to bring our troops home and that we could "take that to the bank". Of course, that video clip was Oct 7th, 2007, and THIS ONE is Oct 21, 2011, a solid FOUR YEARS TWO WEEKS LATER where Obama takes credit for the troop withdrawal "as promised" but which was promised under the US-Iraq Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) signed and ratified in November of 2008, under then President Bush... People were pissed at Bush and voted against his party. Alot of those voters are going to be sitting at home this year.

To say nothing about McCain running a weak campaign...

So I think Obama IS easily defeatable BUT the issue to overcome, is conservative voters being dissatisfied with the GOP's "more of the same" candidate choice.

A little over a year ago, the House of Representatives went from Democrat to Republican by the largest single swap since 1948. That is conservative voters making their voices heard.

Now the GOP is trying to shove Romney down our throats (most think because of a back room deal during the McCain campaign, where he was one of McCains biggest challengers for the GOP nomination, and bowed out from a strong second, and endorsed McCain). I absolutely believe the GOP promised him he would be their choice this election. And thats's the point... facts do not really matter, only perception and beliefs.

Where Obama can win, is where those among us will vote for a 3rd party candidate, or write-in Ron Paul, in protest against the GOP (something I plan on doing not to protest the GOP but because it's my vote, and I intend to cast it for someone I believe in, not someone who is electable).

And besides, I don't think Romney is electable this year.

And if the GOP loses just 5% of it's voter base to disenfranchisement, who vote for 3rd party or write-in candidates or who just stay at home election day, Obama probably wins by a narrow margin.

That, or we can see yet another election where a president wins the electoral votes required to be president, but loses the popular vote... and expect a recount or two.

Just my take on it.

No comments:

Post a Comment